Browsing the archives for the Thoughts category
Those who comment on the financial markets often mention that what is most obvious is uncertainty – those who trade in markets are uncertain about the future. In previous times there has not been firm certainty about the future, yet the current feeling is one of malaise (nod to President Carter).
It’s just not knowing whether markets are going up or down the next day; it’s more than that. It’s not knowing whether life will be as it has been in the past. It’s not just markets; it’s global warming, flooding major cities, population explosion, food and water shortages.
Who is certain that the global warming crisis will be solved in time (Humans do not solve problems that are not imminent)? What will happen when major seaboard cities have become unlivable? Where will the inhabitants have gone? What will happen when the poor in a country are fighting the rich for food and water? What will happen when poor undeveloped countries are “fighting” rich, developed countries for food and water?
It’s too late for contraception to head off the population explosion. The effects may be resolved by a nuclear war or the outbreak of a killer virus.
The people who trade in financial markets have these things in the backs of their minds. The man in the street on streets around the world have these things in the backs of their minds as they distrust their governments and other institutions to improve their lives. Even the Pope senses his church has “gone wrong.” He hopes trying to right its course may save it and its mission.
Our main certainty may be that no one and no movement can save us from possible calamities that will be the solutions to our major concerns.
Quantitative easing, that I don’t really understand, is a reflating tool. I had to look up “reflating” this morning since Bill Gross used it in his latest Tweet. I’m sorry, Bill, I didn’t see how you “got it wrong” on the Barron’s Roundtable, but I forgive you, since I always felt anything I took away from watching one of those sessions was a worthless investing idea. Different opinions on relating/inflating/deflating are floating through the economic ether and no one can know for sure NOW which is right. Will reflating be inflationary in the bad sense of the word? It might be but who can be sure whether it will be good for the price of gold?
When I sit back and look up this is getting really complicated. Near term the United States and the dollar are riding high. Reflating is not likely to bring down either one. Long term the period of US ascendancy on the world stage is coming to an end. The buying power of the emerging world-wide middle class is likely to be inflationary with bumps and starts. There will be buying pressure on basic commodities, food, water and energy, but not necessarily on gold.
My conclusion from this thinking is that both near term and long term gold is not a “sure bet.” Until today my thinking was short, medium and even long term gold was not a good investment, but VERY long term it might be. Has this opinion changed? I’m not sure. Long term for sure basic commodities, food, water and energy would be good investments. They may also be good near term investments as smart money begins to seek them out.
Gold is likely to have a good “reflexive rebound.” Will this be a good time to get permanently out?
Mitt Romney’s run for president is the “last hurrah” of the white race in this country. Many whites will be voting for him for this reason, so perhaps they will have a four- or eight-year hurrah. Many whites don’t recognize the USA anymore; minority persons, including women, seem to be running everything. This is especially true for older whites. Even the younger whites, who were Obama supporters in the last election and who now support the Occupy movements, feel sure the Republicans will not help them realize the “American Dream,” as they begin to doubt whether Obama will deliver it to them. They are beginning to doubt whether they should continue to throw in their lot with those who vote Democratic because they see the Democratic Party as the source of assistance that they need and have even come to rely on.
The older whites yearn for qualification tests for voters, perhaps not as Draconic as the Republicans are supporting in some states, but something like the original requirement that a voter had to be a property or land owner. They certainly wish the voters they think the Democrats drag to the polls had some idea who their local and federal representatives were, what the three branches of the US government are and what country the Declaration of Independence was aimed at.
As a member of the shrinking white race should I follow the allure of the “last hurrah”? How bad can he be? Based on past actions he’ll probably come over to support all the global warming, improving education etc. causes I am for…
One question is which is better for the health of us humans. One student of the evolution of humans from hunter-gatherers opined it was the worst thing to happen to the human race: people had to work long hours most days instead of the estimated twenty hours a week that hunter-gatherers spent getting food (sometimes one another but I digress ). The farmers suffered more from disease because of living and working close together and they also didn’t live as long as those who weren’t eaten. Also discoveries have revealed the earlier humans were as much as 6 inches taller than the later farmers.
The next question becomes why did they segue into farmers if it turned out to be unhealthy. There are a lot of reasons, all of which I don’t recall. One I recall is there was a big drought, and large groups of humans discovered each other as they gathered at one of the few extant oases. From this they drifted into farming to have a reliable food supply. Agriculture led to a stratification of classes; perhaps that stratification led to agriculture. With agriculture came monogamy or at least the virtue of the female as desirable, especially since it allowed the male to be sure which children were his. Free love died along with the cultivation of wheat! But, then they did have more time and the ingredients for making beer – there are always compensations.
Lisa Randall’s book, Knocking on Heaven’s Door, took me to new heights in speedreading. I was able to whiz through chapters that were attempting to explain the innards of such things as the Higgs Boson whatever, page by undigested page. I guess I was looking for an overview of particle physics for the layman, if such a thing is even possible, along with an understandable discussion of how the “scientific approach” applies to day-to-day living and problem solving. Instead I got so much more detail on scientific history and progress than I could ever process.
Among the newer information I retained was a reinforcement that the universe is flat – less than 1% variation from being FLAT. Additional items included that it is all there is (the universe isn’t lodged in some other thing), it’s infinite, there many be [many] other universes and, although for a time it was expanding rapidly, its expansion rate had slowed down but it has recently speeded up again. Another thought that seemed fascinating to Lisa from around p. 375 is “Why do we happen to live in the time when the energy densities of mater, dark matter, and dark energy are comparable?” I wondered who she expected to answer her (probably rhetorical) question. Could this be a scientific hint of The LasDays?
Atoms end, cease to exist, sometimes as radiation. Then my mind wanders to the atoms of a person changing to something like dust as the “soul” of the person does what? Radiates? Changes state?
Brian Cox, in his Science Channel series, Wonders of the Universe, and, I assume his book by the same name, that to date I have not read, started this whole train of thought that is practically plaguing me – occupying much of my waking brain space, when I’m not concerning myself with whether the United States of America can survive the Republicans of this decade or with how to make a buck to augment my savings as I appear to continue being alive. Brian started it with what I recall his statement being that nothing in the universe dies. Everything that was there in the beginning (when? 13.5 billions years ago?) is still there (where?). You, me, whatever you’re looking at as you read this, are made up of atoms, and any and all atoms are made up of differing numbers of the same particles, primarily protons and electrons with some neutrons thrown in to complicate discussions. We’re all made of the same basic protons and electrons – how boring and plain Jane vanilla, no? You and a rock are not so different from each other. Oh, the structure is different for you and the rock as well as the different numbers of different atoms that compose the two of you, but it’s ultimately boring old protons and neutrons probably with a lot of neutrons thrown in. So again you, me, the rock and even the virus that gave you a head cold last winter are made up of the same particles.
Let me digress for a moment and talk about the good old hydrogen atom – one proton and one electron, Atomic Number 1 – how boring can that be. Oh, and then there’s the space questions, but that’s sort of off the subject. Humor me, though. Let’s get that out of the way. Here’s my favorite discussion of this. One I think I made up is if the proton in a hydrogen atom were the size of a soccer ball, an area the size of a soccer field would be required to allow its one electron room to revolve around it. And then there’s the helium atom – should be simple – but two protons and two electrons, Atomic Number 2, but oh my golly, two neutrons. And that’s only the beginning of the complexity. You’re made up of a lot of carbon atoms, but that’s not too bad, Atomic Number 6: six protons, six electrons, AND six neutrons. Let’s say, for discussion purposes, the rock has traces of gold in it. Wow! Gold, Atomic Number 79, has 79 protons and 79 electrons, but it also has 118 neutrons for reasons, I don’t understand, so let’s forget about it. If I had a point, it was that the carbon in you and the gold in the rock are both made from atoms made up of protons, electrons and neutrons – the same atomic (structure not boom) particles that are the building blocks of the universe – to trivialize a deep, deep fact. One thought Brian has thrown in that haunts me about here is that sometime in the past the atoms that comprise you may have made up a rock, and, who knows, you may be on your way to becoming a rock in the not too distant future. Back to Brian’s statement that nothing in the Universe dies, so does that lead to the concept of life (we’re implying “conscious” life) after death?
How has Teihard worked his way into the thoughts bouncing off the walls inside my brain? He did his dirty work in a book entitled, The Phenomenon of Man, a book I’ve been carrying around in tree extract (paper) form since college days, and that I’ve tried to read probably at least 3 other times. If you’re any good in French here’s a link to it in French that I think is still good. After the prior attempts I’ve made to read and understand it the point of the book I’d tell persons would be that mankind will one day reach an “Omega Point” in the Noosphere at which time we will all share some kind of super-consciousness. In my later readings I suspected he was unconsciously predicting the Internet: we would all be knowing and pondering the same things at the same time, knowing that we were doing so.
This time I read Teilhard in Kindle form. That allowed me to highlight any obtuse term (and there are lots of them) he used and have a dictionary definition brought up immediately. Also, I could highlight passages or make notes without soiling the pages of my dogeared paper copy.
What got me back to Teilhard and what got me this time as I read was following the stages of the story of the Universe and more particularly the stages of the story of the Earth. One of the first things that jumped out at me from Teilhard’s pages this time was that life simultaneously and as a microscopic and innumerable occurrence appeared ONCE AND ONCE ONLY. This newly appeared life was formed from the same basic particles that compose us and the rocks.. What’s troubling is when Teilhard says, and I can’t pinpoint exactly where and how he says it, life appeared only once made up of the same particles that make up everything in the Universe, yet nothing appears in the Universe that was not always germinally present, so life was somehow always present and potential in the Universe. Teilhard follows the development of life in his book to where it leads to the development of consciousness (in man). And, as he said about the origin of life, Teilhard also says about the appearance of consciousness that it was always present from the beginning of the Universe. Along with Brian’s statement that nothing in the Universe dies, Teilhard is saying nothing is new. Anything that did not seem to be there before did not appear from nothing; it was always (more than) potentially there.
So, where do these two gurus of the Cosmos, Brian and Teilhard, leave me? Nothing that composes me will die – not the particles that make up my body, ah but how about the consciousness that I exhibit and know I have? The stuff that makes up my body was always in the Universe and the consciousness that illumines my thoughts and enables me to put this into words is not new; it was a part of the Universe from the moment of the Big Bang, if not before. Am I immortal? Is some part of me immortal other than the atomic particles that compose my body and enable my thoughts? I want a scientific-philosophical answer, not a religious answer.
Since the Christmas Eve fiasco the United States is going to add hardware to peek inside passengers’ undies, add – and God-f0rbid train – more TSA inspectors and more intelligence gatherers and analysts, hit targets in bad places (read Afghanistan, Pakistan and now Yemen) harder, and in general spend what is fast becoming significant money. Forget for a minute what this will do to the United States Treasury and think of how it will discourage business travel (think longer lines and longer airport delays). Isn’t this playing into Al Quaeda’s hands — actually their playbook where the goal is to break the U.S.A. financially? Will it really make us safer? I know it will make me even crankier at the airport. I’ve started to think of cross-country car trips as an alternative to taking airplane flights.
What if we spent one-tenth of the amounts budgeted for the above endeavors in information campaigns to Islamic countries to counter the misimpression people have of Al Quaeda,