Browsing the archives for the Economy category
Those who comment on the financial markets often mention that what is most obvious is uncertainty – those who trade in markets are uncertain about the future. In previous times there has not been firm certainty about the future, yet the current feeling is one of malaise (nod to President Carter).
It’s just not knowing whether markets are going up or down the next day; it’s more than that. It’s not knowing whether life will be as it has been in the past. It’s not just markets; it’s global warming, flooding major cities, population explosion, food and water shortages.
Who is certain that the global warming crisis will be solved in time (Humans do not solve problems that are not imminent)? What will happen when major seaboard cities have become unlivable? Where will the inhabitants have gone? What will happen when the poor in a country are fighting the rich for food and water? What will happen when poor undeveloped countries are “fighting” rich, developed countries for food and water?
It’s too late for contraception to head off the population explosion. The effects may be resolved by a nuclear war or the outbreak of a killer virus.
The people who trade in financial markets have these things in the backs of their minds. The man in the street on streets around the world have these things in the backs of their minds as they distrust their governments and other institutions to improve their lives. Even the Pope senses his church has “gone wrong.” He hopes trying to right its course may save it and its mission.
Our main certainty may be that no one and no movement can save us from possible calamities that will be the solutions to our major concerns.
Quantitative easing, that I don’t really understand, is a reflating tool. I had to look up “reflating” this morning since Bill Gross used it in his latest Tweet. I’m sorry, Bill, I didn’t see how you “got it wrong” on the Barron’s Roundtable, but I forgive you, since I always felt anything I took away from watching one of those sessions was a worthless investing idea. Different opinions on relating/inflating/deflating are floating through the economic ether and no one can know for sure NOW which is right. Will reflating be inflationary in the bad sense of the word? It might be but who can be sure whether it will be good for the price of gold?
When I sit back and look up this is getting really complicated. Near term the United States and the dollar are riding high. Reflating is not likely to bring down either one. Long term the period of US ascendancy on the world stage is coming to an end. The buying power of the emerging world-wide middle class is likely to be inflationary with bumps and starts. There will be buying pressure on basic commodities, food, water and energy, but not necessarily on gold.
My conclusion from this thinking is that both near term and long term gold is not a “sure bet.” Until today my thinking was short, medium and even long term gold was not a good investment, but VERY long term it might be. Has this opinion changed? I’m not sure. Long term for sure basic commodities, food, water and energy would be good investments. They may also be good near term investments as smart money begins to seek them out.
Gold is likely to have a good “reflexive rebound.” Will this be a good time to get permanently out?
Once again we need to be reminded of this (click here)
This is a question I must answer if only to explain myself to myself. First I’ve always viewed the popularity of an Apple product – whether an old Mac or an iPad – as a religious phenomenon, like a Joan Baez concert or Jewish delicatessen food, not something loved for its intrinsic value.
The Macs when I paid attention to them seemed aimed at persons without computer skills who wanted a computer only for what they could do with it. They certainly didn’t want a machine that they would have to care for and feed nor update and fix when that was required. I understood that longing, since I was the person in my small circle who was the “go-to” when friends or family had problems. Probably – I don’t know for sure – the Mac brought many features I liked and used: menus and icons (that I really don’t need) are just two I think that originated with Macs. And what would computing for me be without menus? When I try to teach someone how to get the most from their computer I’m always stressing that they “just shop your menus.”
Tweaking my PC to get the processing or performance I wanted was not a problem for me, and I certainly didn’t want to have to take a machine back to the Apple store when it stopped working. The Macs were cute; they were small and light-weight, but I didn’t value those characteristics.
Then came smartphones – the iWhatever versus the Android widget. Oh gosh, and after that has come the iPad with an iPod in between somewhere. The idea of apps and the functionality of many apps I use all the time came from Apple. Android programmers have done a good job of copying their functionality – often the same guys who did the original app for the Apple. Looking at myself I guess I wasn’t dying for something in which I could carry my music; although I do have a certain amount of music in my Adroid whatever. I had to have the first Android smartphone – the Motorola Droid – that Verizon sold. Day-by-day I’d be lost without the functionality of my smart phone, most of which I use on my own WiFi network. The iPad left me cold. I can’t imagine what male wants to carry around a big screen that he can’t put in any of his pockets. For me, I’ve gone from my clunky Motorola Droid with its bigger screen to a little Huawei 8150 that I can slip into most shirt or pants pockets.
Finally I bought a Tablet – my idea of a iPad knock-off, but I hate it. It hurts my eyes when I try to read my Kindle books on it; my Huawei (actually a T-Mobile Comet) doesn’t hurt my eyes. And, it seems I can never find the apps I prefer for it (that’s probably strictly a function of the particular Tablet I bought).
The first computer I worked on had a memory of 4096 16-bit words, effectively about 8192 alphanumeric (A, B, C, 1, 2, 3…) characters, and it filled a room that was about 1200 square feet. It wasn’t something I’d love but only something I’d try to wrest some productive processing from.
Making computing trouble-free for the average brown bear was a good thing; the world was running out of native English-speaking tech support persons.
I understand that Steve Jobs made people love technology; I saw that coming more than 30 years before Apple when I said “electronics is our friend.” I never meant that I thought its being our friend was a good thing only that it was inevitable.
Those like me who stick with PCs know how to make them work, are constantly entranced with new insights into their insides and those of the software that runs on them and enjoy developing new things to do with them. Also, many like me have rarely played a game on a PC, listened to music on it or watched a movie on it, but we do appreciate getting how-to videos that come with new products we buy and we do tolerate the background music that plays as we watch them.
Recently I was investigating security cameras and a home alarm system along with the software to control them. The software initially only ran on PCs, but there was a promise that at some later time MAC versions of some of it would be available. This probably is the best example of why I would always stick with a PC and use it even if I also wanted to watch movies, play music and know where a large circle of friends were partying at any moment in time.
From time to time I’ll play with friends’ and family members’ Macs or even smartphone, if they let me, but I suspect I’ll continue to be an unreconstructed PC addict who is constantly enjoying finding new file types and new PC processes he can use for something he perhaps didn’t know he even wanted to do.
Jon beats all the talking heads:
The liberal blogashere is quite exercised about the probable dire effects of global warming but no one seems ready to confront the “elephant” threatening life on our favorite planet: population explosion. The few who try to discuss it postulate that birth control along with the disinclination of the affluent to have many children will fix everything. However any thinking person with an ability to calculate knows they will be too little too late. The population explosion choo-choo has left the station and not even Denzell Washington has a chance of stopping it. A few billion more will be born before birth reduction efforts and crop yield improvements will kick in to begin braking the trend. Those who survive the decimation of the poors’ children must find a way to try to get a share of the earth’s very limited resources and the way they choose may be violent and messy.
What will happen then? Who knows? The earth’s history seems to include corrections for situations that have become out of balance. What will this correction be? Only something on the order of a global nuclear war seems likely. In this case humankind steps up to correct the mess it created.
As I think about this there’s no wonder Al Gore et al have not tackled it.
In November those of us who vote, if only by slipping on our slippers, opening another beer and turning the TV louder, have the opportunity to turn “USA NO. 1!!!” into an English speaking Banana Republic (even though Hawaii produces only about 10,000 tons/year — and, yes, it is one of the “50” states).
We will be aided, in fact led, to bring about this political change through the efforts of the Democratic politicians that some of us have been so naive as to vote for in the past, those same brave patriots who are trying desperately to leave the halls of Congress without casting a substantive vote on any (even possibly controversial) bill.
Load up the Senate with the nut cases (following in honorable footsteps) as they run for election from places like Nevada and Alaska. Bring back Steven Colbert and other thought leaders to testify this time before Senate Committees. Put C-Span on your list of cable comedy channels.
It should be a fun couple of years!
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
A Nightmare on Wall Street | ||||
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The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
Appholes | ||||
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